What Are the Chances For Donald Trump's Gaza Proposal Will Succeed?
Hamas's partial endorsement toward Donald Trump's Gaza plan last Friday was welcomed internationally representing the closest the two warring sides have got in two years to ending the conflict within the Gaza Strip.
How Near Is a Deal?
The Palestinian faction's incomplete acceptance of the Trump plan is the closest negotiators have reached in recent months toward a full end to the war in Gaza. Nevertheless, they remain far off from a settlement.
Trump's twenty-point initiative to end the conflict stipulates that Hamas release all hostages over 72 hours, give up control to a cross-border body headed by the US president, and disarm. In return, Israeli forces would slowly withdraw its forces from Gaza and return more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners.
The proposal would also bring an increase of relief supplies into Gaza, parts of which are undergoing food shortages, and recovery financing to Gaza, that has been almost entirely decimated.
The organization only agreed to three points: the release of all hostages, the handing over of control and the pullout of Israeli troops from Gaza. Hamas said the rest of the deal must be discussed alongside additional Palestinian factions, as it is a component of a “collective national stance”.
In practice, this implies Hamas wants additional talks on the contentious elements of the Trump deal, particularly the demand for its disarmament, and a clear timeline regarding Israeli troop pullout.
Where and When Will Negotiations Happen?
Delegates have traveled to the Egyptian capital to hammer out details to bridge the gap between the two sides.
Discussions begin on Monday and it is anticipated to yield outcomes within a few days, regardless of the outcome.
Trump shared a picture of a map showing Gaza on Saturday night depicting the line to which Israeli forces ought to pull back stating if Hamas agreed to it, that the ceasefire would begin right away. The US president is keen to stop the war as it approaches to its two year mark and prior to the Nobel prize committee announces the recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in October, an issue that is a frequently mentioned preoccupation of his.
Benjamin Netanyahu announced a deal to secure the return of Israeli captives back home should preferably take place soon.
What Gaps Remain?
The two sides have hedged their positions heading into the talks.
Hamas has consistently refused to lay down its weapons in past negotiations. It has provided no word whether its position has shifted on this, even as it broadly accepts to Trump’s plan, with conditions. The US and Israel have emphasized that there exists little wiggle room regarding the disarmament demand and are resolved to bind Hamas with binding language in any agreement going forward.
The militant faction also said it agreed to surrendering authority in Gaza to a technocratic administration, as outlined by the Trump plan. However, in its announcement, the militant group specified it would agree to a Gaza-based expert-led administration, not the international body that Trump laid out in its plan.
Israel has also sought to maintain the issue of its troop withdrawal unclear. Just hours following the announcement of Trump’s plan in a joint press conference in Washington last week, Netanyahu published a video assuring Israelis that soldiers would remain in most of Gaza.
On Saturday night, the Israeli prime minister reiterated that forces would stay inside Gaza, stating that hostages would be returned as the Israeli military would remain within Gaza's interior.
The prime minister's stance seemingly stands with the stipulation in the US proposal that Israeli forces fully withdraw from the territory. Hamas will demand guarantees that Israel will completely leave and that should the group gives up its arms, Israeli forces will not return to the strip.
Mediators must close these gaps, obtaining clear, strict language regarding giving up weapons from the group. They will also have to demonstrate to Hamas that Israel will truly pull out from the territory and that there will be global assurances that will compel Israel to adhere with the conditions of the agreement.
The differences might be resolved, and the United States will undoubtedly push both parties to achieve an agreement. Nevertheless, negotiations have come near to an agreement before suddenly collapsing several times in the past two years, making both sides cautious of declaring victory before a final signing.